Week 10 Recap

Hello again. No written recap, but I’ve added some stats that I think you’ll like.

Starting off, I’ve added a “Overall” column at the end of the Season Scores. This is the record that each team would have if they played every team each week. In my opinion, this, along with total points, is the best way to determine the true number one team as it removes pretty much all luck out of the equation.

Nothing new to see in the Power Rankings.

The next thing is probably the most interesting thing that I have made in a while. I made a playoff predictor (based off the website https://spreadsheetsolving.com/fantasy_football_monte_carlo/) that simulates games by generating random scores based on the average points scored each week by the respective team. You can see an example of what it looks like below.

I did this for the last three weeks of the season, tallied the predicted wins and losses of each team, and then determined who would make the playoffs based on that simulation. And I did it again. And again. And again.
I actually did this 50 times, then again tallied how many times each team made the playoffs, and divided by the total number of simulations that I did.
The result is below:

You can see that there are a large number of teams that either are 100% locks to be in the playoffs or are definitely out of the playoffs.

Remember: this is all just simulation, and not even a very good one at that. If we wanted this to be even more accurate, it would require us to run it many more times. I just don’t have the coding knowledge necessary to do this, nor do I want to waste my time copying and pasting the results over and over again while slowly developing carpal tunnel syndrome in order to make this a perfect model.

I also realized after this was finished that I didn’t account for the Head-to-Head tiebreakers that we have in place. In the model, position is determined by record first, and then total points as second tiebreaker. I don’t know how much of a difference it would make honestly, but know that even if your percentage is zero, there is a chance I fucked up.
That is, unless you are me. No way I am making the playoffs, but at least Jace’s dumbass is keeping me from being dead last.

Thanks for reading boys. Best of luck to all of you in the playoff hunt.

If you want to see how I did the playoff simulation, the link is here